A realistic rooting guide for Gonzaga fans hoping for some outside help

ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi noted in his updated bracket earlier this week that for the first time in over 22 years, his bracket does not project the Zags as an NCAA Tournament team.

Fortunately, Lunardi had the Zags as the first team outside of the field of tourney contenders. A few results go their way and they could easily jump back in. Any losses from teams around Gonzaga’s position would help the Zags, but even more helpful would be wins from teams on Gonzaga’s schedule.

If you want to track the teams that will have the most impact on the Zags between now and Selection Sunday, keep reading. I’ve laid out which teams to keep your eye on and how they could help, or potentially hurt, the Zags.

THE LOCKS

Purdue sits at No. 2 and Connecticut at No. 9 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as of Wednesday. Both games took place on neutral courts, meaning those teams would have to fall all the way outside of the top 50 for them to drop from Quad 1.

Barring major injury issues, it’s virtually impossible to see either the Boilermakers or Huskies plummeting like that over the next two months.

The only other lock on the positive side of things is No. 17 Kentucky.

Gonzaga’s Feb. 10 tilt with Kentucky will take place at Rupp Arena. True road games count as Quad 1 results as long as the team is in the top 75.

For Zag fans, the only thing they need to root for with this trio is that they keep winning at their current clip, and there’s no reason to expect that they won’t. The lone exception being, of course, that Kentucky does take a tumble when the Zags come to town next month.

POTENTIAL RISERS

Unfortunately, with the way the majority of the Zags’ opponents have struggled this season, there isn’t much here. Most of the teams Gonzaga has faced don’t have much if any shot at making a meaningful late-season surge up the rankings.

There might be just one such team, honestly, and it’s a team that at this point many fans may have forgotten about: Yale.

A month into the season the (Yale) Bulldogs had lost as many games as they had won and didn’t look good along the way.

They’ve gone 6-1 since and are tied for first atop the Ivy League. More importantly, they’ve looked pretty good in doing so.

At No. 105 in the NET, they’re firmly in Quad 3 for Gonzaga, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could climb into the top 75 and thus into Quad 2.

Yale has finished with the highest NET ranking among Ivy League teams in three of the five seasons the NET has existed — they Ivy League did not play in 2020-21, so there are really only four seasons of NET data for the league.

In two of those seasons, a win over Yale in Spokane would’ve landed in Quad 2 on Selection Sunday.

Root for the Bulldogs to keep their unblemished start to league play rolling while also picking up a few wins over No. 85 Cornell and No. 30 Princeton along the way.

POTENTIAL FALLERS

As of Wednesday, San Diego State and Washington sit in Quad 1. That’s good.

At No. 20, San Diego State is comfortable inside of Quad 1, for now. Remember, fall outside the top 30 and the game in the Kennel drops into Quad 2. The Mountain West looks to be a meat grinder this season with plenty of opportunities for the Aztecs to pick up losses that could eventually weigh them down.

Washington presents an even tougher situation. The No. 72 Huskies need to fall only outside the top 75 for that loss to drop into Quad 2. And they’re heading that way, fast. UW is off to a 2-4 start in Pac-12 play, with a loss to a common opponent in UCLA, but the Bruins aren’t a potential faller. They’ve fallen.

The Bruins aren’t even worth mentioning anymore. Fellow common opponent USC has fallen to the point that any damage they’ve already done likely can’t be undone.

The way Washington has been playing, combined with how poor the Pac-12 has been this season — see, UCLA and USC — it’s not inconceivable that UW falls all the way outside of the top 135 and into Quad 3.

As painful as it may be for Gonzaga fans to root for the Huskies, they’re going to need to do exactly that for the next 14-plus games.

CONFERENCE CONUNDRUM

Want to root for No. 113 Santa Clara after the Broncos picked off the Zags last week? You might want to think again.

Santa Clara is a Quad 2 result right now. Could they conceivably move into the top 75 and become a Quad 1 result? Yeah, conceivably. To do that, they’d need to keep proving capable of taking down the teams above them and will only hurt the Zags even more.

Saint Mary’s sits at No. 30, which makes all three potential meetings against the Gaels Quad 1 results. Fall one spot, though, and the Feb. 3 game in Spokane moves to Quad 2.

San Francisco, No. 44, counts as a Quad 1 game in the Bay Area, as would a potential matchup in the conference tournament. The game at the Kennel, though, it’s Quad 2.

Just like Santa Clara, San Francisco has a chance to climb. To move firmly into Quad 1, they’d almost certainly need to knock Saint Mary’s into Quad 2. They also have a chance to fall outside the top 50, and then they’re firmly in Quad 2.

A reasonable best-case scenario for Gonzaga — going undefeated until Selection Sunday, unfortunately, does not look reasonable — would be for the league’s top three teams to split with each other and avoid any losses to teams below them. That would give the Zags their best shot at the most Quad 1 wins in league play.

Zag fans need to root for the Gaels, Dons, Zags to avoid any losses to teams outside of that group, and on top of that for the Broncos to take care of business against the teams below while not picking up any other big wins.

NEXT UP

Men

Gonzaga at Pepperdine • Thur, Jan. 18 at 7 pm • KHQ & ROOT

Gonzaga at San Diego • Sat, Jan. 20 at 7 pm • KHQ & ROOT

Women

Gonzaga at LMU • Thur, Jan. 18 at 7 pm • ESPN+

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s • Sat, Jan. 20 at 2 pm • SWX & ESPN+