Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7, 8-seed) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (20-12, 9-seed)
Thursday, March 20 at 1:35 on TBS (Wichita, Kansas)
It's Northwest Bulldogs versus Southern Bulldogs to open up Gonzaga's 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. Georgia is on the opposite end of that spectrum, as this is UGA's first time to the Big Dance in a decade. In fact, Georgia only has one win in the NCAA Tournament since Mark Few took over as Gonzaga's coach in 1999... and that win was vacated by the NCAA due to a rules violation.
The main reason Bulldogs from Athens are still playing this time is Asa Newell. The forward might be the best freshman in the country outside of Duke's National Player of the Year favorite, Cooper Flagg. Newell is an explosive athlete (he's a projected Top 10 pick in the NBA Draft) and an absolute terror on the offensive glass. He didn't look like a kid despite being a 19-year-old in the absolutely loaded SEC, which sent a record 14 teams (out of 16!) to the NCAAs this year.
The brutal SEC schedule means Georgia is used to playing top-flight opponents. They notably knocked off title favorite Florida less than a month ago and also boast wins over St. John's and Kentucky. On the other hand, playing in the SEC gave them way, way more chances to pick up big wins, and they got a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament than they did in the SEC Tournament (No. 11). Gonzaga should win the game considering their overall experience, talent and coaching advantages (Gonzaga is -6.5 point favorites), but looking past UGA would be a massive mistake considering how few big games the Zags have closed out this year. Per the famed analytics formula at KenPom.com, Georgia has the 34th-best team in the country (54th offensively, 24th defensively), while Gonzaga ranks 9th (9th offensively, 29th defensively).
The game will likely be determined by how much Gonzaga point guard Ryan Nembhard can exploit the clear advantage he has as a distributor (he averages 9.8 assists per game while Georgia averages 12.5 as a team) and whether Graham Ike and Braden Huff can use their experience and skill advantages to slow down Newell.
Potential Second Round Opponent:
1-seed Houston
If Gonzaga can handle its business against Georgia, then we'd get maybe the most hyped matchup of the second round on Saturday when the Zags would almost certainly face the Big 12 champion Houston Cougars. The team from Texas has amassed a wildly impressive 30-4 record while ranking second in the country in defensive efficiency and 10th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Bottom line: Scoring against Houston is hard.
Three of the Cougars' losses have come to teams that earned 1-, 2- or 3-seeds (Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech) by a combined total of 11 points. The silver lining for Gonzaga is that Houston's other loss was to San Diego State, a team the Zags pretty easily beat by 13 on the road. GU has the talent to keep the Sweet 16 streak alive with a big upset, but it would likely take an uncharacteristically good shooting effort from behind the 3-point line to declaw the Cougars.
Possible Midwest Regional Opponents:
4-seed Purdue / 5-seed Clemson then 2-seed Tennessee / 3-seed Kentucky
If — massive IF — the Zags can find a way to knock off Houston, there's a pretty clear and realistic path to winning the Midwest Region and heading to the Final Four.
While additional upsets are possible, the Zags would likely face Purdue or Clemson in the Sweet 16. The Purdue Boilermakers no longer have the giant Zach Edey, who led them to a title game last season, but still boast the point guard who finished second in assists nationally (trailing Nembhard) in Braden Smith. Clemson also had tourney luck last year making the Elite Eight, and led by senior guard Chase Hunter, the Tigers are the only team to beat Duke since November.
If GU finds its way to the Elite Eight, they might be staring down an SEC foe in Tennessee or Kentucky. Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the country, while Kentucky's offense is elite. UK beat the Vols the two times they played, and Gonzaga had an 18-point lead on Kentucky in the second half of their December showdown in Seattle before completely choking the game away. ♦
