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Erick Doxey photo
Gonzaga needs to pick itself up after two disheartening losses.
Sometimes basketball analysis is as simple as laying out a timeline of events. Here are Gonzaga offensive possessions from the 18:10 mark of the second half until the 6:10 mark during the Bulldogs' 90-89 overtime loss to Kentucky in Seattle on Saturday:
*Missed Michael Ajayi 3-point shot.
*Missed Nolan Hickman 3-point shot.
*Missed Graham Ike layup.
*Missed Ike jump shot.
*Missed Hickman 3-point shot.
*Missed Ryan Nembhard 3-point shot.
*Missed Khalif Battle 3-point shot.
*Made Ben Gregg jump shot.
*Missed Braden Huff jump shot.
*Missed Braden Huff jump shot.
*Missed Nembhard 3-point shot.
*Turnover on a shot clock violation.
*Missed Gregg 3-point shot.
*Made free throws (2) by Ben Gregg.
*Turnover by Khalif Battle (offensive foul).
*Made Gregg jump shot with a made free throw for the and one.
*Missed free throw by Ike on the front end of a one-and-one.
*Missed Hickman 3-point shot.
*Made Nembhard layup.
*Missed free throw by Dusty Stromer on the front end of a one-and-one.
*Missed Stromer layup.
*Missed Stromer jump shot.
*Missed free throw by Gregg.
*Made free throw by Gregg.
As I continue to harp on year after year, while Gonzaga's reputation is that they need better defense to win big games, pretty much every big game they ever lose is because they go through a prolonged stretch where their high-powered offense simply can't score. This came back to bite the Bulldogs once again in this year's Battle in Seattle.
During that 12-minute stretch of ineptitude, Gonzaga scored a total of 10 points and saw a 56-39 lead dwindle to a razor thin 66-63 advantage.
During that 12-minute stretch, Gonzaga basically could only get offense via Ben Gregg, who's essentially the team's No. 4 big guy.
During that 12-minute stretch, the Zags missed three free throws, but two were the front end of one-and-one bonus fouls, so essentially they missed five free throws... in a game that went to overtime.
During that 12-minute stretch the Bulldogs had an array of wide open 3-point looks, but went 0-for-8 from behind the arc.
During that 12-minute stretch, Gonzaga's guards shot a grand total of two (two!) shots from inside the 3-point line while scoring only 2 points on that Nembhard layup.
During that 12-minute stretch, Gonzaga lost the effort and coaching battles to Kentucky.
The sky is not falling for the Zags after picking up two defeats. But if the team seriously wants to contend for a national title this year, an honest look in the mirror might be necessary for Mark Few and his players.
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Erick Doxey photo
Mark Few needs to make some adjustments if he wants to be cutting down the nets in March.
For the optimistic folks in Zags nation, it's very easy to chalk up the loss to Kentucky as nothing to fuss about. After all, if the Bulldogs would've even had a mediocre day shooting from deep or Graham Ike wouldn't have clanked so many free throws, they would've beat Kentucky without too much of a fuss. But after two losses in short order — and a tilt with UConn coming up this weekend in New York City — it's probably a good time to air the potential flaws that might keep an ultra talented crew of Zags hoopers from reaching their full potential.
And the one that stuck out the most while watching the game from inside Climate Pledge Arena on Saturday might be one that seems totally contradictory.
Graham Ike is a very good college basketball player. During the first half against Kentucky, he was an absolute force — scoring 18 points and grabbing 8 rebounds — and finished as
by far the team's leading scorer with 28 points and 11 rebounds.
So what I'm about to say is gonna seem harsh.
Gonzaga has
no shot of winning the national title if the offense is centered around Graham Ike in the manner that it was last weekend versus Kentucky. While he absolutely
can score 30+ points in a given game, if the Zags
need him to score 30+ points in a pivotal game, that's probably going to be a losing formula. But overall it's actually less about him than everyone around him.
Gonzaga's offense when it's clicking is a thing of beauty; a free-flowing game led by college hoops' best floor general in Andrew Nembhard. Every guy on the floor has the ability to hit shots and when the Zags' transition game is running — like it was in the first half against UK — they're basically unbeatable.
But when the guards' shots aren't falling — like they weren't in the second half — the Ike-centric post play can be tough to watch. Ike's plodding bully ball post game is good as a haymaker to throw at team when the rest of the offense is peppering in jabs, but it's pretty easy to block the punch when it's the only thing going. The ball just stops when things are Ike-centric, which isn't the case when Braden Huff spells Ike (Huff getting only 9 minutes versus Kentucky is borderline coaching malpractice, even if he wasn't in top form — Hickman was worse and still got 38 minutes). And running the offense late through Ike is problematic due to his poor free throw shooting (as his brick with 1:14 left illustrated).
A big part of the Zags' late struggle versus Kentucky lied in the Kentucky grabbing a boatload of offensive rebounds in the second half (16 total for the game), which stifled the Bulldogs' ability to get out in transition and led to more grinding half court offense. The Wildcats showed so much more rebounding effort after halftime that it was almost embarrassing for GU (Ike only grabbed 3 rebounds in the second half and overtime combined).
A hefty chunk of blame for the loss goes to Mark Few, who had previously owned Mark Pope in head-to-head coaching matchups. While Pope was throwing out a mix switching of man-to-man and zone defenses, Few kind of just stuck to his formula on offense. While it usually works, it's alright to
try something different when you have a prolonged offensive draught that pronounced.
While it's easy to say the Zags were still moving the ball somewhat well during their ice cold stretch and Hickman and Nembhard were just bricking wide open looks — neither are dead-eye shooters. Basically the only reliable shooter from deep on the team is Dusty Stromer (52.2%), and Gonzaga doesn't make an effort to get him offensively involved in games.
Also, that lack of shots inside the arc by guards for that long a stretch is something that the head coach needs to address. It's maddening to have a guy like Khalif Battle on this team and not try to run anything for him when the offense sputters. I know the coach staff (rightfully) doesn't like taking the ball out of Nembhard's hands, but Battle is the one guard who can drive with the ball and get to the rim. A couple of possessions of iso for Battle thrown in the mix might result in a turnover or two, but it'd almost assuredly also result in
at least one trip to the free throw line where he
literally hasn't missed all season (30-for-30).
Again, the offense is normally wonderful, but when it's
not, try something else.
Gonzaga is going to be fine. With the WCC looking a bit down this year, in all likelihood this GU team will enter the NCAA Tournament with a top-four seed (maybe even a 1-seed). But the Bulldogs goal isn't to just be "fine."
Against Kentucky, Gonzaga had no Plan B on offense when Plan A wasn't working for those 12 miserable minutes. In order to be elite, Few and Co. need to get in the proverbial lab and figure out what the heck that Plan B is going to be.