Gonzaga's non-conference schedule has put them in a great spot

The Zags are well-positioned going forward after a punishing start to the season

click to enlarge Gonzaga's non-conference schedule has put them in a great spot
Erick Doxey photo
To paraphrase Chumbawamba: The Zags got knocked down, but they got up again.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs opened the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll. It was an early, if minor, sign that things weren’t quite the same as Zag fans have grown accustomed to in recent seasons. After all, Gonzaga had opened the past two seasons at No. 1.

Then came the losses — a more notable departure from what fans of the Zags have come to know.

Losing to Texas was understandable. It was essentially the grand opening of the Longhorns’ expensive new arena and UT remains a highly ranked team. It was also a blowout. No team in the country other than Texas was winning in that building that night. The Purdue loss at the PK 85 tournament was frustrating, but it too became understandable as 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and the Boilermakers have pummeled their way to a still-undefeated record and the No. 1 ranking in the country. Still, it was also a blowout. At least the Baylor game was close, but it was an overall hideous performance, especially the way Zags choked away the game down the stretch — with a 7-point lead disappearing in the final 1:34 of the game.

At that point, less than a month into the season, GU had already recorded three losses to just five wins. It was their worst record through eight games since a 4-4 performance to start the 2010-11 season (and that's not even counting the unofficial other blowout loss — against Tennessee in a pay-per-view preseason exhibition). 

There are still reasons to stress — defensive issues abound, the young guards are still developing, and the occasional but also too frequent moments in which Drew Timme is the only effective offensive option — but if you take a step back and view things with an objective context,  things are actually pretty alright here in Zag Nation.

They played the single toughest non-conference slate in the country according to ESPN. It's the toughest Gonzaga’s faced since analytics website KenPom.com began tracking the sport in 2001-02. And despite that gauntlet, the GU will enter West Coast Conference play next week with a strong 10-3 record against Division I opposition.

For every team in college basketball, the goal each season is to make the NCAA Tournament. Beyond that, the goal is to put your team in the best position to make noise in the NCAA Tournament. The way a team does that is by building a strong tournament resume.

Of the handful of metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses to determine which teams get in and where they are seeded, the most critical is the NCAA Evaluation Tool or NET. All 363 Division I teams are ranked, 1 through 363, in the NET rankings, which update daily. It is not the only metric used by the committee — so it is not the be-all and end-all —but as of today, Gonzaga sits at No. 12 in the NET. If the NET was followed to a tee, the Bulldogs would be in position to earn a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney as things currently stand, and the Selection Committee has a history of rewarding teams the put together aggressive non-conference schedules.

The NET also sorts teams into four quadrants (i.e. tiers) and weights wins and losses against teams depending on if the game is at home, on the road, or at a neutral site. Quadrant 1 (Q1) represents games against the top-tier of competition, while Quadrant 4 (Q4) includes the worst of the worst. Between those are, you guessed it, Q2 and Q3. Simply put, you want to play, and win, as many games as possible against the top two quadrants.

Gonzaga has three Q1 wins so far this season. Only two teams have more: Kansas and Connecticut. Additionally, Gonzaga is 2-0 in Q2 games this season for a record of 5-3 in the top-two quadrants. Outside of the elite squads in Q1, the Zags are undefeated so far this season. Their wins stack up with the best of the best and their losses, well, they are just about the "best" losses according to NET. There isn’t anything on Gonzaga’s resume to push the Zags out of that top tier.

click to enlarge Gonzaga's non-conference schedule has put them in a great spot (2)
Erick Doxey
It wasn't all smooth sailing, but Mark Few has to be pleased with the trajectory of this Bulldogs squad.
Isn’t this typical Gonzaga, though? A tough non-conference slate followed by an easy run through a weak league. Not quite.

It’s won't be the gauntlet the non-conference has been, but the West Coast Conference isn't looking like a total pushover this year. As it stands currently, Gonzaga's WCC schedule will boast two more Q1 games, five more Q2 games and just one of the unsavory Q4 games. 

For a team with some issues and some room for growth,  the early schedule certainly has caused some stress. But things are fine. Despite the losses, the Zags built a solid foundation in the non-conference. All that’s left is to further build upon it between now and March.

Aside from going undefeated, you can't realistically ask for much more at this point.

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