On Thursday, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers — arguably the most powerful political figure in Eastern Washington — announced that she won't run for reelection in 2024.
The surprise resignation is a major shakeup in what was otherwise expected to be a fairly standard year for Spokane politics.
It was like the "exploding head emoji," says Carmela Conroy, one of three Democrats who have already filed to run against McMorris Rodgers this year. "I had not even considered the possibility."
McMorris Rodgers, 54, has maintained an iron grip on the 5th Congressional District for almost two decades now. The congresswoman is a fundraising juggernaut. Numerous Democrats — including Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown — have tried and failed to unseat her.
In a January article, we said her run for reelection would be "potentially competitive" — a phrase her campaign's spokesperson objected to, noting that the congresswoman has consistently won reelection by wide margins. Brown was one of the only challengers to come close, and she lost in 2018 by 10 points.
When Conroy filed to run this year, everyone told her it was at best a longshot.
But now? Conroy thinks anything could happen. She describes it as a "once in a lifetime" opportunity for Democrats to take back Eastern Washington.
The other Democrats who filed to run earlier this year are Ann Marie Danimus, a small business owner, and Dr. Bernadine Bank, an OB-GYN. They also think McMorris Rodgers' retirement will help Democrats' chances.
MJ Bolt, the chair of the Spokane County GOP, disagrees.
"It's definitely a different race than it would have been had Cathy McMorris Rodgers decided to run," Bolt says. "That said, I am confident that we'll be able to retain the seat."
Bolt thinks the fact that the congressional race coincides with a presidential election and Washington's gubernatorial race will help drive conservative turnout.
The congresswoman's surprise last-minute announcement — just months before the May deadline for candidates to file — has triggered a wave of speculation about which Republicans will scramble to fill her shoes.
The stakes are undeniably high: Incumbent Congress members tend to get reelected, and whoever wins this year has a good shot at representing Eastern Washington for years — if not decades — to come.
"I'm holding on for dear life," Conroy says. "We are off to the races."
"It's definitely a different race than it would have been had Cathy McMorris Rodgers decided to run. That said, I am confident that we'll be able to retain the seat."
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The news hit Spokane's political world like a missile on Thursday.
"I was very surprised, I had no inclination," Bolt says. "In fact, we weren't really thinking too much about that race, honestly."
Conservative Spokane City Council member Jonathan Bingle called several of the congresswoman's staffers on Thursday to congratulate them on the "first government secret that's actually been kept."
"That's insane! You guys did a great job," he told them.
Don Hamilton, a local photographer and longtime critic of McMorris Rodgers, was meeting with other activists to discuss plans to unseat her this year when the news broke.
"It was whoops and hollers," Hamilton says. "It's like, 'Wow, the war is over.'"
During the 2022 election, Hamilton mounted a billboard reading "BigLieCathy.com" to his car and parked it in a prominent spot each morning in an effort to remind voters of McMorris Rodgers' cagey support for Donald Trump's lie about the 2020 election being stolen. It didn't work. McMorris Rodgers beat her opponent, Spokane attorney Natasha Hill, by 20 points that year.
Hamilton says McMorris Rodgers' abrupt departure has him "cautiously optimistic" about Democrats' chances this year.
"I don't know what I'll do with the old signs," Hamilton says. "We fought the good fight."
The timing was especially serendipitous for Bank, the OB-GYN, who was in Washington, D.C., to rally support and fundraise when her phone started blowing up.
"That was an exciting moment for sure," Bank says.
Bank is an advocate for reproductive rights and says the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade was part of what prompted her to run.
Bank says she's seen a rush of new interest and support for her campaign, and is planning to extend her stay in D.C. so she can keep meeting with lobbyists, donors and advocacy groups.
Danimus and Conroy say the news has also triggered increased interest in their campaigns.
Conroy previously worked with the U.S. Foreign Service and was recently head of the Spokane County Democratic Party.
"Our next representative will be either voting for a total nationwide abortion ban, or she will be working to codify our basic human rights," Conroy says. "If for no other reason than this, we really need to elect a Democrat to the 5th Congressional District in 2024."
Daminus previously ran for McMorris Rodgers' seat in 2022 and lost during the primaries. She says she's learned from her first run and is committed to focusing on her message of economic development, health care and support for small farmers.
"Amongst the three Democratic candidates, we're all strong in our own ways," Daminus says.
The three candidates are likely to have company soon.
Spokane got a hint at what a race to replace McMorris Rodgers might look like in 2016, when it was rumored that Trump would be appointing McMorris Rodgers to lead the U.S. Interior Department.
In a single day back then, City Council President Ben Stuckart, Spokane County Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich, state Sen. Michael Baumgartner and state Rep. Matt Shea all announced that they would be running to replace her. (None of these men hold these positions anymore.)
Several days after the potential candidates' announcements, McMorris Rodgers was called to a meeting with the incoming president at Trump Tower in New York, where he presented McMorris Rodgers with a folder of media clippings detailing "various times McMorris Rodgers had spoken out against him," according to The Hill to Die On, a book by a pair of journalists with Politico.
McMorris Rodgers did not get the appointment.
Eight years later, some of the people who prematurely threw their hats in the ring are once again considering running.
Baumgartner, a Republican who is now Spokane County treasurer, said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter, that he had been approached by several potential donors and was considering running.
"We are taking a look and considering the practicalities of a young family," Baumgartner wrote.
Knezovich, a Republican who retired in 2022 after 16 years as sheriff, is also considering the idea and talking it over with his family.
"The last five days now, my phone has not stopped ringing," Knezovich says. "It's quite frankly been a little bit humbling to realize just how many people would like me to do this."
Knezovich says he'll likely have a decision in the next two weeks. He moved to Wyoming after retiring and will have to move back to Washington state if he decides to run.
Knezovich says he recently talked to the congresswoman about the idea.
"Cathy and I have always had a very strong relationship," Knezovich says. "She's not making any endorsements, but she was supportive."
Stuckart, a progressive who unsuccessfully ran for mayor in 2019, says he hasn't made a decision yet, but that his odds of running are "pretty doubtful."
He says he's been looking over the numbers, and the recent redistricting doesn't seem to have made the 5th any friendlier to Democrats.
"I'm not saying no, but I'm not saying yes," Stuckart says.
Shea — a political lightning rod who was expelled from the Republican legislative caucus in 2019 after a report found that he participated in domestic terrorism — could not be reached for comment. (He has ignored media requests for years and has blocked many Spokane reporters on social media.)
In a Thursday episode of his "Patriot Radio" podcast, Shea thanked McMorris Rodgers for her years of service and didn't seem to indicate that he would run for her seat.
"I'm sure there is going to be a mad scramble regarding that," Shea said, adding that people need to be praying for "good leaders to be stepping into these positions as we come into one of the most tumultuous times in American history."
Ferry County Commissioner Brian Dansel was the first Republican to signal his intent to run. In a Friday Facebook post, Dansel said he had formed an exploratory committee to look into a potential run. Dansel was previously a state senator and also served as a special assistant to the U.S. agriculture secretary under the Trump administration.
A number of other Republicans who have been floated by local politicos as potential candidates have yet to publicly say whether they will be running. The list includes Spokane County Commissioner Mary Kuney, former state Rep. Kevin Parker and former Spokane mayors David Condon and Nadine Woodward.
Democratic state Rep. Marcus Riccelli was floated as a potential candidate on the left. But on Monday, Riccelli said he's decided against running.
"I'm in a good position to deliver for the folks in Spokane and have a strong track record of doing so," Riccelli said. "I want to continue my work in the state Legislature."
Andy Billig, the Spokane Democrat serving as state Senate majority leader, also says he isn't running.
"It was whoops and hollers.It's like, 'Wow, the war is over.'"
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McMorris Rodgers retirement follows a wave of House members who have decided not to seek reelection this year.
In a statement, McMorris Rodgers said it had been the "honor and privilege of my life to represent the people of Eastern Washington in Congress." She thanked her family and staff for their support and highlighted her devotion to God.
McMorris Rodgers didn't elaborate on her reasons for not seeking reelection but said the "best is yet to come." Her campaign manager didn't respond to an interview request.
McMorris Rodgers began her political career in 1994, when she was appointed to the state House of Representatives. After U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt said he wouldn't run for reelection in 2004, McMorris Rodgers ran for and won the seat representing Washington's 5th Congressional District, which covers the eastern third of the state.
In 2012, McMorris Rodgers was chosen to serve as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, which made her the highest-ranking woman in the GOP. She's also the only member of Congress to give birth three times while serving.
Knezovich describes McMorris Rodgers as "an individual that cares deeply about people," and he fondly recalls their collaboration on the Spokane County Sheriff's Office Regional Training Center that opened last year.
Bolt, the local GOP chair, praises McMorris Rodgers' work advocating for better conditions at Fairchild Air Force Base and her opposition to breaching the Snake River dams.
Her critics have a much less positive view of her impact.
"I think that corporate money has gotten in the way of her doing anything real for this district," Daminus says. "She fired off a lot of stern letters, but she's not writing any policy."
At the start of 2023, McMorris Rodgers became chair of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee. It's an influential and highly sought after post that McMorris Rodgers could have maintained for several more years if she chose to run again.
Doug Heye, former communications director for the Republican National Committee, speculated in a post on X that "when a new chair of a top committee retires, it tells you exactly how bad a workplace Congress has become."
In recent years, McMorris Rodgers often attempted to walk a fine line between mainstream Republicans and the more conspiratorial elements of her party.
After Trump lost the 2020 election, McMorris Rodgers said she planned to object to the election results, and she was one of 126 House Republicans who signed an amicus brief in a lawsuit seeking to contest the election results.
Riccelli says McMorris Rodgers' actions "fanned the flames of insurrection." Conroy says the congresswoman was "putting party over country."
McMorris Rodgers briefly changed her tune after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, voting to uphold the election results. She said in a statement that Trump "showed a complete lack of leadership."
"People on the right have excused and defended President Trump, including me," she said then. "For Trump supporters like me, it meant turning a blind eye to arrogant, prideful, and bullying behavior."
McMorris Rodgers later voted against forming a congressional committee to investigate the attack on the Capitol. She was also the only member of Washington's congressional delegation to vote against impeaching Trump for his involvement in the events of Jan. 6.
"When she was tested, she failed for the people of our community, and the nation," Riccelli says.
When the Inlander had a rare opportunity to ask her direct questions during a 2022 KSPS debate, McMorris Rodgers deflected when asked whether or not she believed she personally turned a blind eye to Trump's behavior. Instead, she responded by saying "Republicans and Democrats have concerns about election integrity" while acknowledging that "President Biden is the legitimate president."
Still, even McMorris Rodgers' biggest critics recognize the time and energy she put into the job.
"You have to give her credit for having hung in here as long as she has," Conroy says.
Riccelli recalls working with McMorris Rodgers to help Maddie's Place, a Spokane treatment center for newborn children born addicted to drugs. He says the congresswoman's actions on Jan. 6 made collaboration difficult, but that they were ultimately able to put it aside and work to help their constituents.
"I do appreciate anybody who gives a significant portion of their life to public service," Riccelli says. ♦
