It may be "Hollywood's Biggest Night," but certainly Hollywood isn't always right. Before the Oscars for the best films of 2023 are handed out this Sunday, it's good to not only reflect on who will win, but also who should win, and who shoulda been here. Whether you're looking for tips in your Oscars guessing pool or want some lesser heralded films to watch as an Academy antidote, here's our guide to some of the biggest categories at the ceremony.
The crop of Best Picture nominees is more on point this year than most. I'd categorize eight of the 10 nominees as incredibly solid to absolutely stellar. The two that aren't up to that grade are Anatomy of a Fall, an elevated courtroom drama that never rises above that mildly praising description, and Killers of the Flower Moon, one of the best examples of a star-powered and incredibly technically proficient bad movie. Two films from an oft overlooked genre far outshine either — the breathtakingly animated adventure of Across the Spider-Verse and the near-perfection action of Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning.
All signs point to Oppenheimer dominating this year's awards ceremony, and it's the incredibly safe pick to take home Best Picture. That said, the twisted gothic fantasyland feminism of Poor Things was a slowly unfolding, gleeful pleasure that has so much more character than the superb but stoic Oppenheimer.
Christopher Nolan is going to take this one home. But no film so fully realized its director's vision like The Zone of Interest, which manages to be compelling while intentionally dull because of the message at the heart of the film. Greta Gerwig was correctly the most talked about snub this year, but Bradley Cooper also deserved to be here for his almost impressionistic taste for a music biopic. They can take the place of Triet and Scorsese whose nominated films aren't in the same league as the rest of the bunch.
Probably the best and most obviously nominated category — the only swap I'd make is Yoo Teo for Colman Domingo, if only because they're both essential to their films, yet Past Lives is simply a way better movie. Cillian Murphy is a totally deserving winner for his heliocentric titular turn in Oppenheimer, but as someone who prefers American Fiction to the nuclear drama, seeing Wright take home the award would be a hoot.
My most controversial take is probably that likely winner Lily Gladstone shouldn't be among the nominated bunch. It's no real fault of her own, but her Killers of the Flower Moon role neither requires nor delivers a wide dramatic range. Also, Annette Bening really seems to be here on name value alone considering the two clear snubs in this category are both from films that got nominated for Best Picture and simply wouldn't have worked without ultra strong lead performances. I'm speaking, of course, about Barbie's Margot Robbie — who delivered humor and emotion to a plastic world — and Past Lives' Greta Lee — who brought pathos to longing while also fully conveying why a dude might pine over her for decades.
But as for who should win, this is the rare case where I'd hope for a split decision. (Ties are possible at the Oscars!) Carey Mulligan's level of emotional detail in Maestro is a marvel and is the perfect type of centerpiece performance the Oscars traditionally reward. On the other hand, the journey from the bizarre oddity to sophisticated woman that Emma Stone undergoes in Poor Things is so blissfully weird and nuanced. They're wonderful yin-and-yang performances both worthy of the top honor.
In a rare case where an acting category has primarily comedic nominees, the two weakest links are the dramatic ones. Robert Downey Jr. is the heavy favorite to win Best Supporting Actor, but didn't seem to pop that much in a super strong ensemble, while De Niro does nothing remarkable in Killers of the Flower Moon. Much more fun than either performance were Willem Dafoe's Frankensteinian father and writer/director Matt Johnson's loveable moraled computer geek in BlackBerry.
As for the comedic talent actually ensembled, Mark Ruffalo embodies a rollicking fragile male ego with zest, and Brown adds the comedic spice to the dramatic family half of American Fiction. But I'm a simple man, and I just Kennot get Kennough of Ryan Goslings' joyously campy Ken.
Clearly the Oscars value something else from supporting actresses, because this is almost always the category where the nominees leave me baffled. America Ferrera doesn't even crack the top 10 most memorable actors in Barbie. Emily Blunt isn't even the best supporting actress in Oppenhiemer (that'd be Florence Pugh). And like Annette Bening, Jodie Foster seems to be here mainly on name recognition alone. Thankfully, the best nominee — Da'Vine Joy Randolph — is the big betting favorite to win for her role in The Holdovers, which is central to the film's dramatic stakes and levity.
A quick shout-out to a couple overlooked performances that never had any shot of nominations despite outshining those who did. Penelope Cruz probably could've been nominated for Ferrari, but was even better as the loving mother of a trans kid in the Italian drama L'immensità. And Malgorzata Zajaczkowska manages to make a coming-of-age comedy work despite speaking no English in an English language film in the slept-on gem Late Bloomers.
Unless voters shockingly decide to get (incorrectly) super sentimental over Hayao Miyazaki, this award goes to Across the Spider-Verse in a rout. The level of diverse animation styles the superhero flick blends together is jaw-dropping and revolutionary — and that's before you get to the film's winning characters, emotional depth and humor. Also don't sleep on Netflix's Nimona — that modern knight's tale with its titular shapeshifting deviant is an absolute blast.
Elemental is maybe one of Pixar's low points and has no business being here. While it's a delightful dialogue-free treat, I'm still not sure Robot Dreams has even been released (how did it get nominated when nobody can watch it anywhere?). In those two films' places, it would've been great to sub in the delightfully rough-edged TMNT: Mutant Mayhem and the vastly overlooked anime gem Suzume (who doesn't want to close dimensional portals with their chair boyfriend?).
I don't really understand why The Zone of Interest is here because the whole point is that the plot is extremely mundane and boring while horrors are happening in the background. Weaving together hundreds of Spider-Men across multiple universes in a coherent way with fun twists and turns along the way is a much more impressive screenwriting feat.
While there's a chance an Oppenheimer-winning wave leads to a screenwriting statue, too, the way American Fiction blends cutting satirical laughs and real emotional family drama deserves to be hailed. That's not discounting how next level it is that Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach wrote a script about a plastic doll that's somehow hilarious and the most overtly feminist blockbuster ever (though criticisms of making Ken the best character are valid). And Poor Things' script has the confidence to be so weird to start, but then absolutely hums as Bella gains more agency. Really, all of those four nominees would be deserved winners.
The 96th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 10 at 4 pm on ABC.